Probability Essentials

Use the science of probability to turn vague terms like "likely" into precise values you can use to assess risks and alternatives. This beginning course gives you all you need to apply probability to real-world questions. Use Bayes' Rule to incorporate your contextual knowledge. Combine simple probabilities to assess complex events. Use conditional probability to focus on groups or situations. Draw correct conclusions from conditional probabilities, including false positives and false negatives. Avoid the many probability fallacies that often lead to bad decisions. Quizzes, exercises, challenges, and optional spreadsheets are included.